(COURTESY PLANNING COMMISSION)
There is near consensus among the scientific community that ongoing global warming is an anthropogenic phenomenon, a result of carbon intensive activities since the industrial revolution.
However, different countries are at different stages of development, and have had different emission trajectories in the past. On a per capita basis, India is one of the lowest emitters of greenhouse gases in the world, yet it is threatened by the impact of global warming and climate change. As per NATCOM 2007, India emitted 1,728 million tonnes CO2 equivalent of greenhouse gases, making it the sixth largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. India is, however, conscious of its global responsibility, and in December 2009, it announced that it would reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 20 to 25 percent, over the 2005 levels, by the year 2020. This voluntary commitment, which India has made to the international community, shows India’s resolve to ensure that its growth process is sustainable and based on low carbon principles. With the approval of the Twelfth Five Plan by the National Development Council, sustainability has become an integral part of India’s growth policy at both central and state levels.
The Expert Group on Low Carbon Strategies for Inclusive Growth has evolved a macro-model to fully elucidate the inter-sectoral implications of different mitigation measures and ensure that the low carbon strategies being recommended are mutually consistent with each other. The Low Carbon Growth Model is a multi-sectoral, dynamic optimization model that maximizes present discounted value of private consumption subject to commodity supply, natural resource and technology constraints. The Expert Group takes the year 2007, for which India’s official greenhouse gas inventory is available, as the base year, and makes projections going forward up to the year 2030. The Model output is summarized through two endpoint scenarios: the BIG (Baseline, Inclusive Growth) and the LCIG (Low Carbon, Inclusive Growth). While inclusive actions remain unchanged between the two scenarios, low carbon strategies span the vector space between them. Pursuit of Low Carbon Strategies brings down the average GDP growth rate by 0.15 percentage points, while per capita CO2 emissions (in 2030) fall from 3.6 tonnes per person in the BIG scenario to 2.6 tonnes per person in the LCIG scenario. However, in both the scenarios, the total carbon emissions continue to rise up to the year 2030.
The cumulative costs of low carbon strategies have been estimated to be around 834 billion US dollars at 2011 prices, over the two decades between 2011 and 2030. If these costs were borne entirely by domestic resources, the cumulative loss in output (GDP) between 2011 & 2030 would be 1,344 billion US dollars at 2011 prices. While total power demand remains unchanged between the two scenarios, emission intensity of GDP declines by 22 percent, over 2007 levels (by 2030) in the BIG scenario, as compared to 42 percent, over2007 levels (by 2030) in the LCIG scenario. Further, due to a massive change in the energy mix by 2030, demand for coal comes down from 1,568 Mt in the BIG to 1,278 Mt in the LCIG scenario, demand for crude oil comes down from 406 Mt in the BIG to 330 Mt in the LCIG scenario, while demand for gas marginally rises from 187 bcm in the BIG to 208 bcm in the LCIG scenario. At the same time, the installed wind and solar power capacities need to be increased to 118 GW and 110 GW respectively, by the year 2030, in the LCIG scenario. The sectoral chapters focus on a more detailed analysis of the low carbon strategies that are in line with the LCIG scenario.
The residential and commercial sector has grown rapidly over the past fifteen years, as an upshot of increasing population and income. Lighting and appliances in households (such as refrigerators, air conditions, water heaters, fans, etc.) account for 10
percent; while residential and commercial sectors together account for 29 percent of the total electricity consumption. As accelerating urbanization takes urban population to 600 million plus by 2030, demand for electricity will rise. In order to improve energyefficiency in the use of power, the Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) periodically mandates regulatory standards, and also formulates promotional schemes, which encourage the use of efficient lighting,
heating, ventilation, air-conditioning (HVAC), and electric motor based appliances in the residential and commercial establishments across the country. Construction is the second largest economic activity in India that contributes around 8 percent to the nation's GDP. It has been estimated that 70 percent of the building stock in the year 2030 would be built during the period 2011 to 2030. The Energy Conservation Building Code specifies the energy performance requirement of commercial buildings in India. The analysis here estimates carbon abatement potential, by appropriating this code into the proposed construction of buildings, to help reduce the need for lighting, heating, ventilation and air conditioning. The likely opportunities for reduction in emissions
intensity are based on the projected ECBC complaint built-up space, existing as well as new, by the year 2030. The Expert Group emphasizes the importance of creating a policy environment that incentivizes builders and owners alike, to opt for energy efficient
options in their buildings. Some incentives to promote uptake of green buildings and alternative options to finance such projects have also been recommended. The industry sector presents an opportunity for considerable energy savings, in the iron and steel,
and cement sectors, which are the most energy intensive manufacturing sectors in the country. In Cement, use of high efficiency crushers and cooling fans, control of operations of kilns,
installation of air-lifts with bucket elevators etc., have reduced displacement of particulate matter in the atmosphere and contribute to saving both energy and time. Additionally, in Iron and Steel, several energy efficient options like coke dry quenching, recovery of blast furnace gas and preheating of scraps have been introduced, that are also economically feasible. The main policy driver, the National Manufacturing Policy coupled with National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE), has introduced the Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) scheme, which is estimated to lead to a cumulative energy savings of 6.7 Mtoe in the first round of the PAT cycle by 2015. An Energy Conservation Fund for promoting energy efficiency measures in the industry is also being explored as an alternative to PAT, as the former will addresses the
latter’s shortcomings of coverage and simplicity. The transport sector accounts for more than half of India’s petroleum consumption, and a quarter of the overall energy needs. It is estimated that this demand will increase further with increasing socioeconomic mobility of the population. A bottom-up approach is used to examine fuel use and emissions from the transport sector. Projections have been divided into two categories, namely, freight and passenger transport. Subsequently, an array of options is presented for road, rail, air and other modal categories. The primary focus is on increasing the efficiency of railways to increase its modal share of both passenger and freight transport, for example, by increasing the frequency of semi-high-speed trains for inter-city transport and by creating six dedicated freight corridors along the major routes. Other means to improve energy efficiency in the transport sector include enhanced uptake of the public transport, promoting alternatives fuels such as CNG, electric/hybrid mobility and improving the fuel efficiency of both light and heavy vehicles.
The power sector in India has to provide for the dynamic needs of a fast growing economy. Despite this growing demand, it is estimated that in the LCIG scenario, India could keep its electricity requirement down to 3,200 Billion kWh by 2030 (less than an earlier figure of 3,600 Billion kWh projected in the Twelfth Five Year Plan Document). Coal will continue to be the dominant source of power, and even in the LCIG scenario, will have a 65 percent stake in power generation. However, super-critical coal plants, which presently account for only 6-7 percent of the installed coal based generation capacity, should account for more than half of such capacity by the year 2030. The focus in this Report is on policy measures, including grid integration of renewable power, to reduce the usage of fossil fuels in power generation. Nuclear and Hydro power needs to be pursued with greater vigour, even though there are feasibility constraints. The aim should be that at least one-third of power generation by 2030 is fossil free. The discussion on advancing the integration of renewable sources of power is primarily focused on wind and solar power, which are inherently variable, and therefore, non-dispatchable. Integration of large scale wind and solar power requires additional technologies, which can ensure smooth grid operation. The policy framework that combines the use of smart grids with improved energy storage, while enhancing the flexibility of base load power systems, is also an urgent need of the hour. Forests are a significant part of the carbon cycle. A carbon sink absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere and stores it as carbon. In the case of a growing forest, carbon storage takes place in the form of wood, other vegetation and soil carbon. Investment in this sector not only increases the carbon sink, but also contributes to the national GDP. The mitigation efforts discussed for increasing the sequestration potential of forests are multi-pronged, involving sustainable management, conservation and improvement in the density of existing forests, facilitation of wood products use management and promoting efficiency in the use of fuel-wood at rural homes. Government of India needs to allocate more resources
to the Green India Mission to enhance the stock of growing forests, and to improve the provisioning of ecosystem goods and services in the country. As far as implementation is concerned, a two pronged
strategy is recommended; first, that chases the explicit low carbon targets, and second, that combines policy instruments like energy pricing, carbon tax, capand- trade, subsidies and regulation in the right mix. Since low carbon strategies are multi-sectoral and inter-disciplinary in nature, a body like the Planning Commission, whose mandate is to formulate growth policy and coordinate it across the Central Ministries and the States, is best placed to periodically monitor the achievement of these targets, and to place it before
the Union Cabinet for information and direction. The Expert Group strongly recommends that this should be done on a yearly basis.
As the Expert Group becomes functus officio, it leaves behind, a new model of growth policy, which incorporates faster, inclusive and sustainable growth in an integrated framework. Domestic policymakers and negotiators alike, will need to revisit and rerun
this model, to better understand, in an endogenous framework, the growth and development implications of any proposed low carbon strategy, as also to monitor the achievement of low carbon targets from time to time.
LOW CARBON STRATEGY FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH IN INDIA